Cuban migrant flow on the rise

Cuban migrant flow on the rise
Posted on Sun, Sep. 02, 2007
BY ALFONSO CHARDY
achardy@MiamiHerald.com

In a few days, the number of Cuban migrants stopped in the Florida
Straits this year will likely exceed the number of interdictions in 2006.

As of Friday afternoon, Cuban migrant interdictions by the U.S. Coast
Guard stood at 2,255 -- just 38 people shy of last year's total.

The likely increase appears to reflect an anticipated uptick in the
number of migrant departures from Cuba since Fidel Castro took ill and
''temporarily'' ceded power to his younger brother, Raúl, in July 2006.

Whether more departures reflect internal conditions in Cuba or the
normal ebb and flow of Cuban migration is unclear.

Analysts were divided.

''There's great disillusionment,'' said Jaime Suchlicki, director of the
Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of
Miami. ``People don't expect Raúl to open up the economy, and there's a
pent-up demand to get out. They don't expect change in Cuba to be easy
and fast. It's going to be long and difficult.''

Phil Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute in Arlington,
Va., who monitors Cuban events, said that he did not believe there was
''anything unusual going on in Cuba'' and that more or fewer
interdictions were part of regular ''fluctuations'' in Cuban migration.

Even when this year's interdictions exceed last year's, the number may
still not match the total in 2005, when 2,952 Cuban migrants were
intercepted in the Florida Straits.

That was the largest number of Cuban migrants interdicted since the 1994
rafter exodus, when 37,191 were picked up.

Stepped-up Coast Guard patrolling in the Florida Straits has convinced
some Cubans to try alternate routes.

One of the most popular alternate routes is through the Mexican resorts
of Cancún and Isla Mujeres.

Recently released Customs and Border Protection figures show that the
majority of Cubans arriving in the United States now are showing up at
crossings along the Mexican border.

Cuban migrants who make it to U.S. soil are allowed to stay under the
wet-foot/dry-foot policy. Those interdicted at sea are generally sent
back, although some who demonstrate fear of persecution are taken to the
U.S. Navy base at Guantánamo Bay for resettlement in third countries.

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