In My Opinion
Is Raúl Castro ready to deal?
By Jaime Suchlicki
cubanaffairs@miami.edu
The December visit to Cuba of a U.S. congressional delegation led by
U.S. Reps. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., and William Delahunt, D-Mass., yielded
few results. There seems to be an eagerness among some Congress members
to begin a process of normalization of relations with Cuba, especially
after Fidel Castro's recent illness was revealed. The beliefs persist
that economic considerations could influence Raúl Castro's policy
decisions and that Cuba's difficult economic situation will force Cuba's
new leader to move toward a market economy and closer ties to the United
States.
We seem to cling to an outdated economic determinism in trying to
understand events in other societies and the motivations of their
leaders. Despite economic difficulties, Raúl Castro does not seem ready
to provide meaningful and irreversible concessions for a U.S.-Cuba
normalization. He may offer more consumer goods and food to tranquilize
the Cuban population, but not major structural reforms that would open
the Cuban economy. In Cuba, political considerations dictate economic
decisions.
Raúl's legitimacy is based on his closeness to Fidel Castro's policies
of economic centralization, total government control and opposition to
the United States. He cannot now reject Fidel's legacy and move closer
to the American government. A move in this direction would be fraught
with danger. It would create uncertainty among the elites that govern
Cuba and increase instability as some there advocate rapid change while
others cling to more orthodox policies. The Cuban population also could
see this as an opportunity for mobilization to demand faster reforms.
Raúl is also unwilling to renounce the support and close collaboration
of countries like Venezuela, China, Iran and Russia in exchange for an
uncertain relationship with the United States.
At a time when anti-Americanism is growing in Latin America and
elsewhere, Raúl's policies are more likely to remain closer to regimes
that are not particularly friendly to the United States and that demand
little from Cuba in return for generous aid. In September, Russia
provided a $350 million credit package to Cuba to modernize its armed
forces, and Venezuela's aid to Cuba will surpass the $2 billion mark for
2006.
Raúl is no Deng Xiaoping. He has been the longest (48 years) serving
minister of defense. He presided over the worst periods of political
repression and economic centralization in Cuba and is responsible for
numerous executions after he and his brother assumed power. He has been
a loyal follower and cheerleader of Fidel's anti-American policies and
military interventions in Africa and elsewhere.
In 1962 Raúl and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev conspired to
surreptitiously introduce nuclear missiles into Cuba. Raúl supervised
Cuba's Americas Department approving support for terrorist, guerrilla
and revolutionary groups throughout Latin America. In 1996 he personally
ordered the shoot down of two Brothers to the Rescue unarmed, civilian
planes over international waters, killing three U.S. citizens and one
Cuban-American resident of Florida. An admirer of the Soviet armed
forces, Raúl displays a picture of Russian military leaders in his
Havana office. Late last year he signed a $350 million Russian aid pact
to upgrade Cuba's military.
Raúl's politically motivated speech on Dec. 2, in which he expressed his
willingness to negotiate with the United States, was preceded by a
vitriolic attack on U.S. foreign policy and followed by the now standard
qualifiers that Cuba is sovereign and that its revolution won't change.
For the past four decades Fidel Castro has been making similar
statements. Raúl's proposal was aimed at foreign audiences -- Europeans
and particularly the new Democratic-led U.S. Congress. He expects
unilateral U.S. concessions on the embargo and the travel ban to happen
in the future. And in a rare public statement two years ago, Raúl warned
the United States that it should negotiate its differences with Cuba
while Fidel was alive since ``the United States would find it more
difficult to negotiate with me.''
For the past four decades, the avenues for negotiation and engagement
between the two countries have never been closed. The United States and
Cuba signed anti-hijacking agreements and migration accords.
Yet, negotiations alone are not sufficient. There has to be a
willingness on the part of the Cuban leadership to offer real
concessions -- in the areas of human rights and political and economic
openings -- for the United States to change its policies. No country
gives away major policies without a substantial quid pro quo. Only when
Raúl is willing to deal, not only to us, but more important to the Cuban
people, then and only then should we sit down and play.
Jaime Suchlicki is director of the Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Affairs at the University of Miami.
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