With Fidel a no-show at parade, Raúl Castro shows he's firmly in charge

Posted on Sat, Dec. 02, 2006

With Fidel a no-show at parade, Raúl Castro shows he's firmly in charge
BY FRANCES ROBLES
frobles@MiamiHerald.com

cuba

In a clear signal that Cuba's post-Castro era has begun, an ailing Fidel
Castro failed to appear at a massive military parade in his honor
Saturday while his brother and designated successor delivered an
inaugural speech of sorts.

Without explaining his brother's absence, Raúl Castro renewed his
willingness to negotiate an end to the almost 50 years of animosity
between Washington and Havana -- but on his own terms.

''We want to reaffirm our disposition to resolve at the negotiating
table the prolonged dispute between the United States and Cuba, if and
when they accept our country's condition that it will not tolerate any
shadows over its independence,'' Raúl said.

Many Cuba watchers had expected Fidel castro to make his first public
appearance at the parade since undergoing surgery in July and
''temporarily'' surrendering the presidency to Raúl. At that time,
Castro asked that celebrations for his 80th birthday on Aug. 13 be
postponed until Saturday.

But his absence was certain to fuel U.S. reports that he suffers from
terminal cancer and likely will not live past 2007. The Cuban government
has refused to detail his ailment, only repeating incessantly that he is
``recuperating.''

Cuba's media said 300,000 soldiers, students and workers marched along
the Plaza of the Revolution as MiG jets soared overhead, tanks rolled,
and the nation's elite watched from the perch of bleachers.

Many of the marchers chanted ''We love you, Fidel'' and ''Viva Raúl,''
and some carried signs praising the revolution, launched Dec. 2, 1956,
when the yacht Granma landed in eastern Cuba carrying the Castro
brothers and 80 other fighters.

But in other parts of Havana, the capital seemed largely quiet and
almost lifeless on a Saturday morning, with only a dampened sense of the
celebrations of the birthdays of Castro or the revolution.

Some Havana residents interviewed by The Miami Herald on Saturday seemed
to accept that Castro is on his last legs, yet -- at least in public and
before strangers -- insisted that his ideology would survive his death.

''His death will not change anything. It will not mean they can come in
and take over,'' said 83-year-old Sergio, referring to Cuban exiles abroad.

A foreign visitor who was in Cuba just days after Castro's ailment was
revealed this summer reported that on Saturday there appeared to be less
concern than in August, when there was much street talk about a possible
U.S. attack.

''His absence is felt, but one day we all have to go. The system will
outlive the man,'' said Maximiliano, 60, an engineer. The surnames of
Sergio and Maximiliano were withheld by The Miami Herald.

Leading the military display was Raúl Castro, still referred to by the
Cuban media as defense minister rather than acting president. After a
brief introduction by a teenager, Raúl gave the only address of the parade.

It was the second time in Raúl Castro's rare recent public statements
that he mentioned a willingness to work with Washington. But his calls
are likely to fall flat for the time being since the Bush administration
policy is to push for democracy in Cuba -- and oppose the kind of
succession from one Castro to another that Saturday's speech signaled.

''The absence of Fidel at this parade means that Dec. 2 marks the start
of the post-Fidel era,'' said National War College professor Frank Mora.
``The eulogies have begun, history and legacy will inform everything,
but the message is clear . . . a new era and model of governance has
begun.''

Raúl led the parade aboard a Soviet-era military vehicle, then later
went up on the podium to join dozens of special guests, among them
Presidents Evo Morales of Bolivia and René Préval of Haiti and
Nicaraguan president-elect Daniel Ortega.

''We are convinced that the way out of the distressing conflicts that
humanity faces is not through war but through political solutions,''
Raúl said.

The Bush administration reacted to the speech by reiterating its
previous position: The communist government must first initiate a
democratic opening -- an option long rejected by the Cubans as
interference in their internal affairs.

''The dialogue that needs to take place is one between the Cuban regime
and the Cuban people about the democratic future of their island,'' said
State Department spokeswoman Janelle Hironimus, reading from a prepared
statement. ``As we have repeatedly stated, any deepening of our
engagement with Cuba depends on that dialogue and the Cuban regime's
willingness to take concrete steps toward a political opening and a
transition toward democracy.''

Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere Thomas Shannon
in August specified some of the U.S. conditions: freeing political
prisoners, respecting human rights, permitting the creation of
independent organizations such as political parties and trade unions,
and ''creating a pathway'' toward elections.

Frank Calzon, a Cuban-American activist who heads the Washington-based
Center for a Free Cuba, said he welcomed Raúl's talk of negotiations --
''talking is better than repressing people'' -- but also suggested that
he should be talking to other Cubans, including Catholic Church leaders.

The olive branch that Raúl extended toward Washington was not without
barbs, however.

''After almost half a century, we are willing to wait patiently for the
moment when common sense prevails in the behavior of the circles of
power in Washington,'' he said.

'Three years and seven months after the euphoric and hasty declaration
of `mission accomplished' in Iraq by President Bush aboard an aircraft
carrier, the cadavers of young American soldiers continue to arrive in
the United States,'' he added. ``The government of the United States
finds itself at a crossroads with no way out.''

Underlining the importance of Raúl's speech, the Cuban government
swiftly posted translations in English, French, Italian, Portuguese,
German, Arabic and Russian on its website.

Many observers say Raúl Castro would be a more pragmatic leader,
committed to communist rule but open to reforms away from Cuba's
centrally controlled economy. The Revolutionary Armed Forces that Raúl
Castro leads now runs most of the island's commercial enterprises, such
as its tourist industry.

Since Fidel Castro announced plans for Saturday's event four months ago,
he has appeared only in sporadic videos and photographs that showed him
shrunken and weak, sometimes in pajamas or a loose-fitting track suit.

But those weren't the images shown Saturday on Cuban television, which
broadcast hours of historic clips of a younger, stronger, triumphant Castro.

Miami Herald Washington correspondent Pablo Bachelet and translator
Renato Pérez contributed to this report. The name of the correspondent
in Havana who also contributed was withheld because the newspaper lacks
Cuban government authorization to report from there.

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