BACK TO CUBA? EXPECT A CRAWL, NOT A RUSH

BACK TO CUBA? EXPECT A CRAWL, NOT A RUSH
by Mark Scheinbaum
American Reporter Correspondent
Miami, Fla.

MIAMI -- The year was 1974 and the dapper, well-spoken Cuban ambassador
to the United Nations, Ricardo Alarcon, would nod hello to me most days
en route to work at the Legislative Palace in Panama City, Panama.

The event was the first-ever Security Council session outside of New
York, held to discuss the transfer of Panama Canal control from the U.S.
to Panama, and Alarcon was one of the "third world" stars at the event.
I was too young and foolish even to think that 32 years later Alarcon
could be a possible successor to Fidel Castro.

At the time, I was just happy that Cuban tv crews, celebrating the brief
cordiality between us, usually slipped me one or two Cuban cigars each
day in our cramped quarters in the press gallery loft.

Speculation this week falls on Castro's brother Raul's temporary
assignment as "cacique-in-waiting," and Cuban exiles' realities or
fantasies about a mad rush back to the island to re-liberate property
and businesses after Castro's demise. History tells me that things are
not always what they seem.

Although there is a pantheon of aging "comrades" from the early days of
Castro's revolution, and the natural sentimentality favoring loyal
brother Raul, no one who has followed Raul's career has noted any of the
"personalismo" or charisma which characterized his brother. The
revisionists of Cuban history who praise Raul's "calm assessment of
economic and planning issues" are just trying to explain away an
uninspired and un-dynamic party hack. Think about the Soviet
"apparatchiks" who used to line up to review the troops in Red Square
each May Day and you get the idea. Alarcon, having held numerous
domestic and foreign party roles, would be the likely transition choice
if Castro indeed cashes in his fatigues and spells el fin to his career.
I suspect that while Fidel is regaling St. Peter with a five-hour speech
on why he should be sent North instead of South for eternity, Alarcon
will be instituting a post-Berlin Wall-style transition.

Americans don't understand that Canadian and European investors and
social activists have had their claws and pocketbooks in Cuba for years.
The agricultural conglomerates who once owned the sugar "centrals" and
plantations, and the hotel chains, homeowners, car dealers, and casino
operators who think that their pre-1959 properties will automatically
revert back to them, could be in for a surprise. Both Communist and
non-communist regimes have nationalized foreign-owned railroads,
resorts, oil refineries, and farms over the years, and the chance of
claims being honored legally a generation or two down the road are,
well, expensive, and pragmatically dubious.

In the post-Soviet age, I envision American and European interests
serving as a slow to moderate catalyst for a Czech- or East German-style
reintegration into the community of world capital. Tourism in a
broadened form, recovery of mineral resources including petrochemicals,
and exploitation (not in the pejorative sense) of an educated
techno-class of teachers, nurses, doctors, and even military advisors,
along with agrarian reformers. could all create a better balance of
trade for a post-Castro Cuba. But as I looked at the white hair, or bald
heads, and ample bellies of the well-heeled crowd at La Rosa restaurant
in Little Havana yesterday, I wondered how many 60- and 70-year-olds
would immediately jump back into the politics of their post-Fidel
homeland. I suspect a larger number of them will rather watch events
unfold on CNN, and brag about has the this year's best season tickets to
the Miami Dolphins games.

American Reporter Correspondent Mark Scheinbaum's thesis on "Cuban
Foreign Policy in the English-Speaking Caribbean," is a past first-prize
award-winner of the Florida Political Science Association. He is based
in Florida.

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