New Leadership May Spark Change in Cuba

New Leadership May Spark Change in Cuba
Cuba's New Collective Leadership Raises Possibility of Change, Both on
Island and for U.S.
By VANESSA ARRINGTON

HAVANA Sep 1, 2006 (AP)— On the surface, life in Cuba remains utterly
normal a month after Fidel Castro ceded power for the first time in 47
years. But behind the scenes, an emerging collective leadership is
increasing the possibilities for change on the communist-ruled island,
and bringing a fresh look at U.S. policies aimed at undermining the
Cuban system.

Raul Castro is beginning to show his leadership as acting president
while his brother rests from intestinal surgery, and Carlos Lage,
another member of the collective, is being featured more prominently in
state media. Both have been more inclined than Fidel to open up Cuba's
communist economy.

And in a statement much analyzed by Cuba watchers, Raul Castro said he
supports normalizing relations with the United States but only if the
Americans stop trying to determine how Cuba is governed.

The U.S. government's latest "transition" plan assumes "a more active
civil society" and a "growing sense of frustration among ordinary
Cubans" on the island will help hasten change, especially after Fidel
Castro, now 80, is gone.

But while pressure to alleviate daily economic struggles is increasing a
reality Raul Castro will have to face calm has reigned under the
75-year-old defense minister's leadership. And with the Cuban government
running smoothly, attention is shifting to whether the U.S. might change
its long-standing focus on pushing out the Castro government.

"If Raul Castro decides to make some serious changes in Cuba, that would
immediately knock the props from under the existing policy of the United
States," said Mark Falcoff, resident scholar emeritus at the American
Enterprise Institute, a conservative Washington think tank.

Some Cuban dissidents, from the moderate Oscar Espinosa Chepe to the
more strident Martha Beatriz Roque, say Raul may listen to younger
government leaders and allow more private enterprise. Even modest
economic openings could lead to increased political freedoms, they say.

While Raul strongly embraces the primacy of the communist party, he has
shown a willingness to experiment with a freer economy.

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