Ways to tell how grave Castro's condition may be

Posted on Tue, Aug. 01, 2006

Ways to tell how grave Castro's condition may be
BY JOHN DORSCHNER
jdorschner@MiamiHerald.com

''The next 36 to 72 hours are going to be crucial in Cuba,'' said Andy
Gomez, a senior fellow at the Unversity of Miami's Institute for Cuban
and Cuban-American Studies.

The key signals may be first revealed by United States satellites.
''Looking at the special forces base south of Havana, if we see heavy
tanks moving around, then we can be sure that Castro is gravely ill or
close to death,'' said Gomez, who has spend years studying Cuba.

Other major indicators: If Raul Castro doesn't speak in public in the
next 72 hours, it might indicate that he is not in firm control of the
power his brother left him with.

Gomez questions whether Raul will be able to obtain the absolute power
that Fidel has always had. ''The three army generals now,'' the ones who
control the three large areas of the country, ''are Fidelistas, not Raul
men.'' And one of them has such a strained relationship with Raul that
they haven't talked in a long time.

''Our [satellite] telescopes need to be watching troop movements very
carefully,'' Gomez said.

''I think Raul is going to have to have collective leadership,'' Gomez
said. He suggested that Fidel's temporary ceding of power might be a
test to show who sides with Raul and who doesn't.

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