Cuba and Cuban Exiles Ponder the Future

Cuba (and Cuban Exiles) Ponder the Future

Morning Edition, August 1, 2006 · The announcement that Fidel Castro has
temporarily handed power to his brother Raul has set off waves of
speculation about Cuba's future. In Miami, Cuban exiles took to the
streets to celebrate the news.

Q & A: Power Shift in Cuba
by Tom Gjelten

People wave Cuban and U.S. flags as they celebrate on the streets of
Little Havana in Miami, Aug. 1, 2006, one day after hearing the news
that Cuban leader Fidel Castro was ill and had relinquished power to his
younger brother Raul.

Q: This is the first time Fidel Castro has ceded power to anyone since
he took power in 1959. What does that say about the seriousness of this
situation?

If he really has ceded power to his brother Raul, it would be
extraordinary, because in all the years since he took power in 1959,
Fidel has made every major decision in Cuba. There's nothing that has
happened in that country that has not borne his imprint. Every time the
country has made a turn toward reforms, or toward a more hard line, it's
been Fidel himself, acting alone, who has made that judgment.

So not only has Fidel not ceded power in any formal way, he hasn't even
really shared authority for governing Cuba during all these years.
Everyone who is in power in Cuba today is there, in one way or another,
because Fidel has bestowed authority on him or her.

It would be unimaginable, just about, to have a Cuba in which Fidel does
not play this dominating position. He does not like to share power, and
I think it's fair to assume that if he can possibly continue to call the
shots from his hospital bed, he'll be doing so.

If it turns out that Raul Castro really is in charge and making
decisions, that will indeed be a completely changed situation, with
unpredictable results. We'll be getting a glimpse of what's likely to
happen in Cuba after Fidel really is gone.

Q: What are we likely to see during this period when Raul is in charge?

Fidel has already several times designated Raul as his successor, so
there's nothing surprising about that. In fact, just this summer, within
the past few weeks, the Cuban newspaper Granma carried major coverage of
Raul, lauding and praising him. One question is whether Fidel himself
has been orchestrating that coverage to set Raul up.

One interpretation of these events could be that Fidel, in fact, is not
as seriously incapacitated as he might seem to be, but is putting Raul
out there to give him a test run of sorts.

On the other hand, if Raul really is in charge, we may see some signs of
changed directions in Cuba.

Raul Castro is considered more pragmatic than Fidel. He's interested in
economic reforms that Fidel has spurned. As defense minister, Raul has
been deeply involved in the economy, because the Cuban military is a
major economic player in Cuba. So it's possible we'll see some
directional change in Cuba.

We’ll also be watching for possible realignments within Cuba. There are
a lot of people with important positions in Cuba, such as Foreign
Minister Felipe Perez Roque, who are very close to Fidel. On the other
hand, there are people who are close to Raul.

You have your Fidelistas and your Raulistas. If we now see the Raulistas
taking more of an important position in Cuban politics, that will be
significant. We've long assumed there would be a power struggle in Cuba
in the aftermath of Fidel's rule. It's possible that we'll see some
signs of that power struggle emerging in the next few weeks.

Q: There are more than a half-million Cuban-Americans in South Florida
who fled Cuba and have been waiting for Fidel to die or relinquish
power. What's been the reaction so far in Miami?

Miami last night was quite the scene. Roads were closed because people
were out in the street celebrating. There are a lot of Cubans who think
Fidel may already be dead -- that this carefully orchestrated
announcement may just be a way of buying time and preparing the Cuban
people for his demise. So there are a lot of people who are already
celebrating, out there banging pots in the streets, thinking that Fidel
may already be gone.

Q: What does this mean for the United States?

This is going to be a really critical test of U.S. policy. Fidel has
been the personification of Cuba for so long that U.S. policy toward
Cuba is centered very much on the person of Fidel. And when he is gone,
there's bound to be some reconsideration of that policy.

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