South Florida awaits change in Cuba

Posted on Thu, Jun. 15, 2006

TRADE
South Florida awaits change in Cuba

While waiting for Fidel Castro to fall, the Miami business community has
developed an analysis of the trade advantages South Florida will have
and the potential competition it will face.
BY JANE BUSSEY
jbussey@MiamiHerald.com

When the Berlin Wall crumbled in 1989, Miami lawyer Nicolas Gutierrez --
like others in the Cuban-American community -- was convinced of the
imminent demise of the government of Fidel Castro.

But on Wednesday at a Cuba conference organized by the Greater Miami
Chamber of Commerce, Gutierrez was not making any predictions. ''I don't
believe anyone at that time thought that here, 17 years later, we'd
still be waiting,'' Gutierrez said.

Cuba's future may not be predictable, but the South Florida business
community now has a much clearer picture of the island economy and the
challenges ahead than it did when the Soviet bloc first began to unravel
and undermine the Cuban economy.

The half-day conference, ''A Future and Free Cuba -- Opportunities and
Threats for Florida,'' touched on areas where Cuba will complement
Florida -- trade, investment and services -- and where it will compete
-- tourism and agriculture.

Speakers discussed Cuba's future needs and various scenarios for South
Florida after the death or retirement of President Fidel Castro and the
possible succession of his brother, Raul.

''This is a bankrupt economy,'' said Andy Gomez, a senior fellow at the
Institute of Cuban and Cuban American Studies at the University of
Miami. ``Only Haiti is poorer.''

But Gomez, also vice provost at the university, noted Cuba possesses
some advantages to aid the transformation of its legal, political and
economic systems: ``Cuba has a very high literacy rate and a good
education system.''

Teo A. Babun, who heads Babun Group Consulting, detailed the island's
infrastructure: 10 international airports, 31 ports, 9,200 miles of
railroad, 21,000 miles of roads and 14 electricity plants.

''Cuba has a transportation infrastructure that is better than in most
Latin American countries,'' he said.

But on a island of 11.4 million people where there are few private car
owners and only 800 gasoline stations, considerable investment is needed
in ports, electricity plants and other infrastructure, he added.

Gomez pointed out a recent study estimating that Greater Havana needs $8
billion in investment to rebuild and refurbish aging and decrepit
buildings and a 1913 water and sewer system.

Babun predicted that all Florida ports would expand trade with Cuba
after the lifting of the U.S. trade embargo. ''The Miami airport better
rethink their program,'' said Babun, adding that he expected a flood of
flights between the island and Miami.

The panelists warned of other possibilities, especially an increase of
Cubans coming to Miami, many of them to stay, during a transition. The
makeup of the audience -- from lawyers and cruise line executives to
border patrol and coast guard representatives -- confirmed that a
cross-section of business and government are actively planning for any
change in Cuba.

South Florida's legal community also has studied both Cuban law and U.S.
rules.

Pedro Freyre, a shareholder with the Miami law firm Akerman Senterfitt,
outlined U.S. laws on travel and doing business in Cuba, including the
conditions for lifting the trade embargo under the Helms-Burton law.
''It's very difficult for any government to meet this criteria,'' he said.

Under the U.S. embargo, trade to Cuba is restricted, but in recent years
Americans have been permitted to export agricultural and medical products.

The legal system in Cuba is equally complicated, noted Patricia
Hernandez, a partner with Holland & Knight, as she listed numerous laws,
including one that allows foreign investment and free-trade zones but
restricts dispute settlement to the Cuban Supreme Court.

None of the speakers were making predictions about when change may come
in Cuba.

Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Institute of Cuban and Cuban American
Studies, made that point as he joked that if anyone wanted to know what
was going to happen: ''Walter Mercado will be here tomorrow morning,''
referring to the celebrity astrologer.

Brian Latell, a senior research associate at the institute, insisted,
''We must be realistic'' that Cuban democracy might be postponed during
a succession of Raul Castro after Fidel.

Media coverage of Raul ''has reached unprecedented levels'' in Cuba,
said Latell, a former CIA analyst, adding it might be a sign that the
government is preparing the population for his eventual succession.

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