Castro's standing tied to leftists' rise

Posted on Sun, Jun. 04, 2006

LATIN AMERICA
Castro's standing tied to leftists' rise
The Cuban president's stature appears to be at its highest in at least
15 years, elevated by left-leaning Latin American presidents.
BY FRANCES ROBLES
frobles@MiamiHerald.com

Where did new Haitian President René Préval go on his first trip abroad?

Cuba.

With whom did Bolivian President Evo Morales meet the day before he
nationalized his country's natural-gas industry?

Cuban President Fidel Castro.

And which country did a high-level St. Vincent official recently
describe as a ''stabilizing force'' in the region?

Cuba.

As Latin America elects more and more presidents who lean to the left
and the Bush administration's standing in the region slumps, experts say
Castro is enjoying his warmest relations with his hemispheric neighbors
in decades.

And as long as his friend Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is flush with
cash and oil, the two-man leftist team is bound to gain legitimacy and
recognition in a region where many complain that they have long been
ignored by the United States, experts add.

''I think we are seeing a revival of Fidel Castro, a resurgence of his
presence and persona,'' said business consultant Manuel Rocha, the
former U.S. ambassador to Bolivia. ``There's been a reinvigoration of
the Cuban revolution, and all of it because of one person -- Hugo Chávez.''

TIDES OF POPULARITY

Cuba watchers largely agree that Castro's standing in the region has not
been this good since at least the dissolution of the Soviet Union in
1991. Others point out that a leader in power as long as Castro -- 47
years -- is bound to experience booms and busts along the way.

The Cuban leader had one of those booms in the late 1970s, when
Marxist-led Sandinista guerrillas seized control of Nicaragua, the
leftist New Jewel Movement ruled Grenada and Castro hosted dozens of
heads of government for a summit of the then-powerful Non-Aligned Movement.

He lost some ground in the 1980s and especially in the 1990s, but as a
leader who has stuck around to outlast nine U.S. presidents, Castro now
has been around long enough to see a leftist resurgence.

''I wouldn't say he's enjoying more support; I'd say he's feeling better
than ever, because things are going his way in Latin America when they
hadn't for years,'' said Susan K. Purcell of the Center for Hemispheric
Policy at the University of Miami. ``His support is certainly higher
than it was a decade ago. He's certainly less isolated.''

COLLAPSE OF SOVIET AID

During the Cold War, Cuba's economy and revolution were pumped with
billions in aid from the Soviet Union. That aid collapsed at a time Cuba
was cut off from much of Latin America, which was then generally
following U.S. economic policies.

But those policies failed to enrich Latin American masses, and now
voters in Venezuela, Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil and Chile have turned
toward leftist leaders who are far more likely to maintain friendly
relations with Castro. With three critical elections coming this year in
Nicaragua, Mexico and Peru, Castro's standing in Latin America hangs in
the balance.

Bolivia's Morales has joined Chávez and Castro in what they dubbed ''an
axis of good.'' Fueled with Venezuelan oil profits, Chávez has embarked
on Cuba-style social programs he learned from his elder mentor to
benefit Bolivia's disenfranchised poor.

FOREIGN RELATIONS

Experts say that while Castro is viewed as Chávez's mentor, in some
respects he has taken a back seat to his oil-rich protégé. But Chávez is
quite willing to share the limelight with the grandfather of Latin
American leftist politics, and Castro, experts say, is just as willing
to ride the coattails.

In exchange, Castro has gained recognition in the international
community, particularly during key votes in international bodies. Last
month, Cuba was elected to a United Nations human rights council with
135 votes. Castro needed only 96.

'It shows he can work other countries' foreign ministries and he can get
a certain limited support for whatever he wants,'' said a U.S. State
Department official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he
was not cleared to speak publicly. ``I wouldn't say it shows greater
influence in the region.''

`INVIGORATED'

In addition to the state visit by Haiti's Préval, Panama's President
Martín Torrijos visited Cuba this year and stopped by to visit
Panamanians getting eye surgery in Cuba. At the Caribbean Community
summit in Barbados late last year, Castro was received warmly.

''He's enjoying more support than ever before, more than he's ever
enjoyed in the 47 years he's been in power,'' said Wayne Smith, a former
head of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana and now a frequent visitor
to Cuba. ``This is relatively new. He has been invigorated.''

`THEY DON'T LIKE US'

But Smith added that Castro's good standing has more to do with a
growing disdain for the United States. A Latinobarómetro poll last year
showed that while President Bush is favored over Castro in Central
America, in South America, Castro's approval rating was 4.8 out of 10,
and Bush's was 4.1.

''It's not so much that they like him, but they don't like us,'' Smith said.

MODERATES CORDIAL

While Castro and Chávez are clearly forging forward in places like
Bolivia, their position is less clear in places like Argentina, Chile
and Brazil. Those countries all have elected leftist heads of state, but
they are moderates who also have been keeping up friendly relationships
with the United States.

Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva did not become the leftist firebrand
and Castro cohort as feared when first elected, experts point out. But
even Colombia, which recently elected conservative Alvaro Uribe to an
unprecedented second term as president, has cordial relations with Cuba.
Peace talks with one of Colombia's leftist rebel groups, the National
Liberation Army, are in Havana.

Caribbean countries have always maintained good relations with Cuba,
relations that have grown only deeper with the brigades of Cuban doctors
who work in neighboring nations and the scores of low-income Caribbean
students who attend medical school in Havana.

FILLING THE U.S. VOID

That goodwill extends beyond Latin America, as Cuba befriends countries
around the world with its medical missions. Cuba's foreign minister
recently announced that about 60 nations would participate in the next
summit of the Non-Aligned Movement, to be held in Havana in September.
The president of Iran is also expected to visit.

''All this gives him legitimacy and recognition and strengthens his hand
in negotiating things with the United States,'' former Ambassador Rocha
said. ``The United States left a void -- and it is being filled.''

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