Cuban Professor predicts US embargo will take five years to go
BY HG HELPS Editor-at-Large helpsh@jamaicaobserver.com
Sunday, August 16, 2015
TABIO… If there is investment, you can expect the Cuba economy to boom,
but I say we should accept foreign investments but not allow 90 per cent
of all investments to come from the USA.
HAVANA, Cuba - Despite the fact that Cuba and the United States have
officially restored diplomatic relations, one Cuban academic believes
that the wait for the US embargo to be lifted on the socialist country
will be long.
Dr Luis Rene Fernandez Tabio, Professor of Economics at Havana
University's Centre for United States and Hemispheric Studies and
Research, remains pessimistic that the embargo will be lifted before the
passage of the next five years.
The United States, which imposed the embargo on the north Caribbean
island over 50 years ago after Fidel Castro-led revolutionary forces
overthrew right wing dictator Fulgencio Batista as Prime Minister,
reached out to Cuba last December through the efforts of President
Barack Obama.
That resulted in a thaw in the usually frosty relationship which on
Friday rose to warmer levels, what with the official opening of the
United States Embassy in this picturesque city of two million
inhabitants. The Cuban embassy was opened in the US political capital of
Washington DC last month.
United States Secretary of State John Kerry, a former Democratic
Presidential contender, and Cuba's Minister of Foreign Affairs Bruno
Rodriquez led a flag raising ceremony near Havana's shoreline Friday and
later hosted over 300 media representatives at a news conference held at
the posh Nacional Hotel in the capital.
Kerry told journalists that the occasion was "very special" for him, as
it marked the first time in 70 years that a Secretary of State was
visiting Cuba. That happened in 1945, the same year that Jamaica's Prime
Minister Portia Simpson Miller, and reggae legend Robert "Bob" Marley
were born.
Both Kerry and Rodriquez insisted that although the journey had just
begun, brighter days were ahead.
But Professor Fernandez Tabio does not predict that a light will emerge
at the end of the tunnel anytime soon.
"When will the embargo, or blockade as we Cubans prefer to call it, go?
asked Fernandez Tabio. "It will take time, a long time, and I don't
expect it before the next Presidential election in the United States
next year.
"In fact, I don't think we will see the embargo lifted before another
five years. By that time, the two individuals who were at the forefront
of the move to restore relations between countries - Barack Obama, and
Raul Castro - will be out of office," suggesting that the latter leader
who took over officially from his brother, the legendary Fidel in 2008,
will demit office as President of Cuba in 2018, based upon an earlier
pronouncement by Fidel's younger brother of serving only two terms as
leader. He is now in his second term.
"I don't think the ending of the blockade is around the corner, maybe
2019 or 2020. Considering all the options, 2020 would be a good guess,"
he went on.
Although the Obama administration has hinted its support for the end to
the embargo, approval for what Cubans have described as the most
indigestible drug of the last half a century must come from the US
Congress, which is dominated by the Republican Party, Obama's direct foe.
Several Republicans have openly objected to the restoration of the
diplomatic bond between both countries, and have disclosed that they
would go against ending the embargo whenever it clears the many
anticipated hurdles that would result in a vote.
"It's a very complex situation and it all depends on the pressure to be
generated by the US Congress," Professor Fernandez Tabio said.
Responding to a question from the Jamaica Observer that the Cuban vote
in the next Presidential election in the United States could determine
the speed at which the embargo is lifted, Professor Fernandez Tabio
ruled that out as an influential factor.
"The last Presidential election in the United States was not decided by
the Cuban-American community. This is not a significant issue. You can
win an election and the Cuban-American community will not play a role in
terms of votes.
"Right now it would be risky to go against the decision taken by Obama.
And let's assume that (Republican Presidential hopeful Donald) Trump is
elected. Do you think he will close the Cuban embassy in Havana? No! The
embassy represents the interest of the American people so he would want
that to be kept. But would he want the embargo to go?
Regarding the potential growth of the Cuban economy if there is to be
investment by US companies in coming years, Professor Fernandez Tabio is
cautioning against focusing on the Americans serving as a pillow for the
Cuban people, as he believes that there could be negative consequences.
"Cuba is very like America already and Cuba is the nation closest to
American standards. Cubans are proud to be Cubans ... they don't feel
inferior to Americans. They like things like American food and music,
but it is important that Cuba is not re-neo-colonised by America. We
must learn so that we don't repeat our same mistakes.
"If there is investment, you can expect the Cuba economy to boom, but I
say we should accept foreign investments but not allow 90 per cent of
all investments to come from the USA. Once the US controls 90 per cent
of the economy, the rest is a piece of cake. Cuba needs to balance the
economic, social and political situation with the rest of the world and
not be dominated by the US. Cuba must have a clear mind. You don't want
to fall in the hands of the big power.
"There is a saying that Mexico is far from God and close to the US. We
are very much in the same situation," Professor Fernandez Tabio said.
Source: Cuban Professor predicts US embargo will take five years to go -
News - JamaicaObserver.com -
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Cuban-Professor-predicts-US-embargo-will-take-five-years-to-go_19223998
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