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Saturday, April 06, 2013

Cuba: The Beginning of the Post-Castro Era

Arturo Lopez Levy
Lecturer and Doctoral Candidate, University of Denver

Cuba: The Beginning of the Post-Castro Era
Posted: 04/04/2013 12:04 pm

In 1960, when Cuba's new first vice president Miguel Diaz-Canel was
born, Fidel Castro had already been ruling Cuba for a year. Neither the
Beatles nor the Rolling Stones had conquered the rock 'n' roll market.
Dwight D. Eisenhower ruled the United States, being the first of 11 U.S.
presidents until Obama, who have applied the failed embargo policy
against the Fidel & Raul Castro partnership and the political project
they represent.

But there are no victories against the calendar. In 2006, Fidel Castro's
illness forced the first transition in the Cuban leadership since 1959.
Raúl, then age 76, replaced Fidel, who was almost 80. Despite that it
was a succession between brothers of the same generation, the presidency
of Raúl Castro has had important consequences for politics and the Cuban
economy. Faced with the loss of Fidel's charismatic leadership, the
Cuban Communist Party (PCC) began processes of economic reform and
political liberalization, in order to rebuild their capacity to govern
under the new conditions.

In the last five years, the government has created an important
institutional foundation for the parallel transition to a mixed economy
and a post-totalitarian relationship between the state and civil
society. With the election of the new Council of State on Sunday, the
last phase of the transition to the post-Castro era began. Raúl Castro
was reelected to the presidency, but for the first time a leader born
after 1959, Miguel Diaz-Canel, became the second in command. Although
this transition is unfolding with the same party and president in power
and is gradual and limited, new leadership and changing priorities are
discernible.

If you look at the Communist Party as a corporation (an analogy that
should not be abused) Diaz-Canel is a manager who, over time, has served
at various levels of its production chain. He worked at its foundation,
as a university teacher and youth leader. Later, in the strategic
provinces of Villa Clara and Holguin, he administered the implementation
of economic reforms and directed the opening of the economy to foreign
investment and tourism -- all the while, maintaining party control over
both processes.

Díaz-Canel is part of the network of provincial party czars who are very
important in the implementation of the proposed changes, particularly
decentralization. Having worked in central and eastern Cuba, the new
first vice president has cordial ties with regional commanders of the
Armed Forces, the other pillar, along with the Communist Party, of the
current Cuban system. He is a civilian, the first in the line of
succession to have little military experience. But he is steeped in the
networks of power and well versed in the controlled management of reforms.
If Cuba implements the type of mixed economy proposed by the last VI
Congress of the Communist Party and establishes a new relationship with
its diaspora and the world, it will also transform politically. With the
economy and society changing, the political environment cannot remain
intact. The rise of market mechanisms and an autonomous non-state sector
will reinforce the new pluralizing flows of information, investment and
technology. The new social sectors will seek representation in the
political arena. Citizens will have greater access to the Internet, and
connect more horizontally.

This does not imply a transition to multiparty democracy over the next
five years. Nevertheless, economic liberalization will force an
expansion of the current People's Power system. Economic and migration
opportunities will channel some of the energy in the direction of new
businesses and travel, but it will not be enough. The party system will
be reformed in order to remain at the helm of social and economic
changes. Political liberalization will probably start at the lower
levels of government, allowing citizens to vent their frustrations at
that scale. However, the pressure will rise. Limiting leadership to two
terms, at a time when the older generation is leaving power by
attrition, will result in a less personalized and more institutionalized
leadership that promotes upward mobility of new leaders in an orderly
fashion.

Pressures for systemic political changes could increase as the economy
recovers. A dynamic Cuban market would whet U.S. corporate appetites and
put the U.S. embargo against the island in jeopardy. Ending an
irrational relic of the Cold War would increase democratization demands.
In the next five years, the central challenge facing Cuban leaders is to
have the audacity, creativity and self-confidence to accelerate economic
reforms, without losing control of the ongoing political liberalization.

Follow Arturo Lopez Levy on Twitter: www.twitter.com/turylevy

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arturo-lopez-levy/post-castro-cuba_b_2996206.html

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