A 'perfect storm' to free Cuba?
Published January 22, 2007
Would a "perfect storm" help resolve the tedious Fidel Castro
illness-and-succession saga gripping Cuba?
The question came up during a recent forum on the island's future.
Specialists suggested that -- contrary to some hopes after the Cuban
dictator first took ill -- essentially no possibility presently exists
for a post-Castro collapse. That is, unless a perfect storm develops.
Now, I have to admit that I would be very pleased if Castro would wither
away and a freer Cuba would emerge. For too long, the island's people
have been denied self-determination and subjected to the whims of a
crusty communist who refuses to accept that the "best" days of his
movement and philosophy lie behind him.
But so many questions swirled around Castro's health crisis at its onset
that it was impossible to determine if he was actually indisposed.
Perhaps, as some speculated, he had devised a scheme to evaluate how the
transition might unfold. If it did not take place in a positive manner,
Castro magically would return from behind the scenes and resume control.
To this day, Castro's true status remains a frustrating secret. Some
have him at death's door. Others express optimism. As one example, a
Spanish doctor who examined Castro in December declared that he did not
have cancer, might recover and, in any event, was doing "fantastically
well."
I doubt it, having seen through the propaganda that communist systems
have spewed over the years. In fact, Castro's death could easily happen
long before it is publicly announced.
The argument that Raul, Fidel's brother and current ruler of Cuba, is
capable of ushering in substantial change and has a firm grip on the
reins also strikes me as off-base. The two men have walked in lock-step
for nearly half a century. It is highly unlikely that Raul's golden
years will inspire him to replace his repressive toughness with a
reformer's visage, despite his much-discussed willingness to delegate
authority and seek advice.
Oh, Raul probably will hold on for a few years or so. My guess, though,
is that opposition criticism and boldness will mount -- especially among
young people, who regard the Castro brothers and their inner circle with
no particular admiration.
And in the event of a perfect storm -- the chance occurrence of several
unrelated events that collectively deliver a far more significant impact
than they would individually -- I suspect that the Castro regime would
crumble.
Consider this: A perfect storm starts sometime during the next several
months with Fidel's passing. Second, shortly thereafter, Raul dies; he
is, after all, only slightly younger than his sibling and cannot defy
nature. Third, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez departs from the scene,
whether by popular pressure, an illness or an act of violence. The
absence of Chavez, a staunch partner and benefactor of the Castro
regime, staggers Cuba. Fourth, world prices for key Cuban commodities
such as sugar drop precipitously, creating more dire circumstances.
Finally, an actual storm hits. Cuba, sitting squarely in the middle of
hurricane alley, has no real defenses. I am not talking about 2005's
storms such as Dennis and Wilma, as damaging as they were. Rather, given
today's increasingly common freak weather -- for example, the mega-storm
that devastated Europe last week -- a "hurricane of the century" almost
surely looms over the horizon. Dwarfing Hurricane Katrina in size and
packing category five-plus winds, it wallops Cuban agriculture, tourism
and society.
Against such forces, unless Cubans opt to leave in droves, regime change
will follow -- without any assistance from the United States, I might
add. Considering America's commitments around the world, I cannot
imagine any serious U.S. intervention impulses toward Cuba, no matter
how vulnerable it appeared.
But I certainly can imagine and would welcome any version of a perfect
storm for Cuba that would relegate the Castro era to history.
Foreign-affairs columnist John C. Bersia, who works part-time for the
Sentinel, is the special assistant to the president for global
perspectives at the University of Central Florida. He can be reached at
jbersia@orlandosentinel.com.
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