By Katherine Shrader
The Associated Press
Posted January 16 2007, 5:51 PM EST
WASHINGTON -- Cuban President Fidel Castro, ailing and out of sight, has
been meeting with a trickle of international guests in recent months, a
U.S. government official said Tuesday.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the
sensitive situation with Cuba, declined to say with whom Castro was
meeting. But the meetings, generally with visitors from Latin America,
suggest he may be setting the stage for a transition of power that he
hopes will protect the government he has built over four decades.
In a review of global threats last week, National Intelligence Director
John Negroponte said that Castro and his brother Raul, who has taken
over as Cuba's temporary leader, are trying to create a ``soft landing''
during the transfer of control. ``From the point of the United States
policy, we don't want to see that happen,'' Negroponte said. ``We want
to see the prospects for freedom in that country enhanced as a result of
the transition'' from Fidel Castro.
Negroponte also said Castro's days ``seem to be numbered,'' a view
supported Tuesday by the U.S. government official. That official said
U.S. intelligence believes that Castro is likely to die within a month
or two, although analysts don't yet know the precise nature of his illness.
That assessment narrowed the life-expectancy estimate of U.S.
intelligence agencies, which previously had said Castro was not expected
to make it through the end of this year.
The Spanish newspaper El Pais reported on Tuesday that Castro has had at
least three failed operations and is suffering complications from an
intestinal infection, leaving him with a ``grave prognosis.''
The reported rare details about his medical treatment, citing two
unidentified sources from Madrid's Gregorio Maranon hospital, which
employs surgeon Jose Luis Garcia Sabrido. An expert in the digestive
system, Sabrido flew to Cuba in December to treat Castro and returned
insisting that the 80-year-old was recovering slowly from a serious
operation.
A Cuban diplomat in Madrid said the El Pais report was false. ``If
anyone has to talk about Castro's illness, it's Havana,'' the diplomat
said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of official policy.
U.S. officials will not disclose how they glean clues to Castro's
health. But American spy agencies employ physicians who study images,
public statements and other information coming out of Cuba and other
countries.
Some intelligence officials believe Castro is suffering from
diverticular disease, which can cause bleeding in the lower intestine,
especially in people over 60. Others believe that Castro has cancer of
the stomach, the colon or perhaps the pancreas.
Yet Cuban officials told a delegation of U.S. lawmakers visiting last
month that Castro did not have cancer, and the Spanish doctor who came
to check on him said the same.
Havana's public position is that Castro is alive, healthy and will
return to power, which U.S. analysts discount.
Negroponte said last week it is an open question whether Castro's death
could trigger a popular demand for democratic change.
``What is not known is whether people are holding back _ maybe we're not
seeing the kind of the ferment yet that one might expect to see once Mr.
Castro has definitively departed the scene,'' said Negroponte, who has
been nominated by President Bush to be deputy secretary of state.
Pressed further by senators on whether the U.S. knows what to expect in
Cuba, Negroponte added: ``We don't know in large measure because it is a
repressive society. They've repressed their opposition so severely over
all these years, so people aren't exactly speaking up yet.''
Despite uncertainty about the future of Cuba, the island's Communist
Party retains firm control on the island. And the head of the Defense
Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Michael Maples, said Raul Castro probably
will maintain power and stability after his older brother dies _ ``at
least for the short term.''
``Raul Castro has widespread respect and support among Cuban military
leaders who will be crucial in permanent government succession,'' Maples
said in written testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/cuba/sfl-0116castronew,0,3227592.story?coll=sfla-news-cuba
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